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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

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One exception, he notes, could be the Seminole Tribe of Florida and their proposed Hard Rock Resort Casino in Tomakomai, Hokkaido.

“They are currently aggressively growing the Hard Rock Casino brand, with developments under way in Las Vegas, New York City, Greece, Puerto Rico and Jamaica. They will put forth an attractive development proposal, and it appears that they now have the support of local government,” Klebanow notes.

As highlighted by Klebanow, Japan’s fragmented approach to gambling regulation may impact the development of Japan’s IR gambling industry, and Suzanne Perilloux Leckert, co-founding partner of Convergence Strategy Group somewhat agrees.

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The number of gaming machines in licensed premises in the final quarter was reported at 191,804.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham recent proposed a package of measures that would repeal the established “aim to permit” rule for betting shops and 24-hour slot machine arcades across Great Britain, removing a presumption in favour of granting permission for such venues. 

AGCs in England that offer round-the-clock access to gambling machines will instead require planning approval.